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A predictor with a perfect track record on the American economy is moving closer to signaling a recession





Yield curve

A key predictor of the health of the American economy is inching closer to signaling a recession.

The indicator in question is the US Treasury yield curve, a measure of the gap between short- and long-term interest rates. When it is steep — meaning it costs more to borrow money for the long term — that’s a good sign investors expect a quickly growing economy.

A flattening one suggests a slowing one. That’s what’s occurring now.

The spread between the yields on two-year and 10-year Treasurys fell to 79 basis points, or 0.79%, after Wednesday’s disappointing consumer-price and retail-sales data. The read more >>>

Source:: BusinessInsider.Com

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